A lot has changed since 2014. Factors that have influenced current used car values / prices and have done for the last 2-3 years or so;
- Parts / components shortages and supply chain issues due to the war in Ukraine and limited semiconductor supplies.
- Because of 1. above, fewer new cars being built and longer lead times than historically.
- A shortage of good quality used cars. Many dealers have had limited stocks. My VW dealer told me last year that at that time they’d started parking cars diagonally on their forecourt to fill the gaps and give the impression they had more stock to sell than they actually had. They’ve also contacted me twice in the last year or so wanting to buy my car!
1.- 2. above has meant that many people who would’ve historically bought a new car but weren’t prepared to suffer an excessively long lead time (up to two years in some cases) either bought a nearly new car instead or kept their existing car. The result has been increased demand for good quality in-demand used cars and reduced supply of used vehicles. Increased demand + reduced supply = high prices.
Out of curiosity, I‘ve just checked to see what We Buy Any Car (WBAC) would offer me for my car; WBAC are renowned for making lowball offers, so their valuation would probably be at the
lower end of what I could get for it if I sold to one of the car buying services. Currently, they are offering 10% less than I paid for it brand new three years ago and IMHO 10% depreciation over three years of ownership of a mass produced car would‘ve been unheard of a few years ago. If I were to sell to WBAC (I wouldn’t), by the time they’d sold my car on through the trade and the buying dealer had added their mark up / margin, it would be up for sale on a forecourt at a higher price than I bought it for; crazy!
New car supplies and lead times do seem to be gradually improving which should have a knock-on impact onto used prices, so with any luck, we’ll see used prices starting to fall. With that in mind, it might be worth waiting an keeping a watch on prices over the next 2-3 months.