I used to live in Scotland so I have some idea what you mean about weather. You seem to have the necessary information to make your decision, but simply on appearance, I would get the coating and do the brushless wash. It should be good for at least three years then you can see if you want to repeat the polishing and coating.
I'm leaning towards this option, then I know whether it's something worth doing in the future or not, sometimes you just have to try yourself, learn from trial and error, too many factors that varies here, (compound option, climate variety, car wash). There's also one other slight benefit to this option. The car washes here have 50% off on a brushed washing programme with wax after 22.00 when electricity is cheaper which I've normally used on the Mazda 3 but the brushless washing programme is only 1€ expensier than that daytime as well so then I don't have to limit myself to go late night washes like I've done currently adding more flexibility.
EDIT: There seems to be even 2 or 3 years warranty depending on ceramic coating option so that's nice.
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